A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
