🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest shock.

However this year's competition is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent strugglers ascending together. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still